use case · plan and deliver
Neo plans your Black Friday, then tracks it against actuals.
The offers and what they cost, the CAC the sale allows, the budget phased from September to December, the rules for reading figures that arrive late, creative volume and the calendar. Then, every Monday, the plan against actuals.
4,000 advertisers and agencies already use Creaboost.
A plan written before the sale, so you can decide during it.
Maison Lune’s founders are thinking about 30% off sitewide. A month before Nov 27, Camille asks Neo for the Black Friday plan.
Put together the Black Friday plan. The founders are thinking 30% off sitewide. How much can we spend in November?
Camille Durand · Tue, Oct 27 · 09:05
Neo · 09:38
- Shopify · live · Sep → Dec 2025, by day and by hour
- Meta · live · 1-day and 7-day click
- Google Ads · 08:40 sync
- memory · economics of Oct 14, events, concepts
plan of Oct 27 by peak_sales_planning · Black Friday Nov 27 → Cyber Monday Nov 30 · France, Belgium, Switzerland · profit play · economics of Oct 14, events of Oct 26
Main offer at 20% off, a gift box as backup. November at $136,000 in the base case, $173,000 if contribution holds.
At 30% off sitewide, each sale keeps only 17% margin: the break-even ROAS goes from 2.4 to 5.8, above the 4.6 Meta did in Black Friday week 2025. At 20% off, it is 3.6. With the discount counted, the sale can pay $52 for a new customer over 180 days. The main risk: cutting the weeks before the sale because same-day figures look weak.
- break-even ROAS
- 3.6
- at 20% off · 5.8 at 30% off
- CAC allowance
- $52
- sale period · over 180 days
- November budget
- $136,000
- base · $173,000 in the stretch case
- sale ads
- 48
- 6 concepts · live Nov 16
objectiveProfit: raise spend up to the point where contribution stops growing. Clearing stock is limited to the Ocre collection, after Christmas.
the offers and what they cost
- main20% off
20% off sitewide, Nov 23 to 30.
The three-pack of high-waist briefs stays at 20% off, with no stacking. At 28% margin after discount, a $109 first order leaves $30 to pay for the new customer.
- margin after discount 28%
- break-even ROAS 3.6
- break-even CAC $30
- backupgift box
A free gift box on top, from $130, ready to take over.
It switches on if the store’s conversion rate stays under plan two reads in a row. Its creatives are made in advance, so the offer can change within hours.
- margin 24%
- break-even ROAS 4.2
- creatives ready Nov 20
- set aside30% off
30% off sitewide.
Each sale would keep 17% margin. In Black Friday week 2025, Meta did 4.6 on 7-day click: a break-even of 5.8 would be out of reach at every point.
- margin 17%
- break-even ROAS 5.8
- after christmasDec 26
30% off the Ocre collection, Dec 26 to Jan 6.
Grade D stock, to turn back into cash. From around December 16, auction prices drop sharply: media is the cheapest of the quarter.
- grade D stock
- auction prices down from Dec 16
Margins from the discount table in the economics section of Oct 14. The CAC allowance counts the discount and the lower repeat rate of customers acquired during a sale.
missing inputsThe plan arrives four and a half weeks before Nov 27; the method prepares it ten weeks ahead, and September and October are already spent. The economics section does not yet give customer value by first-purchase month: the repeat rate of Black Friday customers is estimated from November 2025, cautiously.
reading rules and decisions
- 01
Keep the weeks of Nov 2 to 22 at October’s level, even when same-day figures drop.
rule Shoppers wait for the sale, so conversion rates drop beforehand. Cutting spend shrinks the number of people who know the brand when the sale opens.
every Monday · $28,000 to $30,000 a week - 02
Correct each same-day ROAS with 2025’s 7-day to 1-day click ratio, week by week.
rule Before and during a sale, many people click days before they buy: same-day ROAS understates the weeks before, and the gap widens in November.
October × 1.3 · week of Nov 16 × 1.7 - 03
On Nov 27, never judge the day on its first hours.
rule Spend peaks early in the morning, revenue a few hours later. At 10 a.m., the day’s ROAS is read with 2025’s hourly multiplier, next to the store’s conversion rate hour by hour.
Nov 27 and Nov 30 · at 10 a.m. × 2.1 - 04
Unlock the stretch case on three days of contribution.
rule Raise spend when contribution improves at the margin, hold otherwise, lower it after two weak reads in a row. Contribution peaks where marginal ROAS meets 3.6.
threshold · nCAC ≤ $52 over 3 days · founders’ sign-off Nov 3 - 05
Put the 48 sale ads live on Nov 16, before the peak.
rule Creatives launched early build delivery history before the peak days. In 2025, a single ad carried at most $2,050 a day: $10,300 on Nov 27 takes at least five strong ads, plus the tail.
creatives delivered Nov 13
Saved in Docs · Maison Lune · Black Friday plan · 10/27/2026 · dates and offers to add to the events section
- Open the pacing sheet in Google Sheets
- Check the plan every Monday until Jan 11
how Neo gets there
Last year as the reference, margin as the limit.
- data
Last year, day by day and hour by hour.
Neo reads the store and every platform from September to December 2025: spend and revenue by day, hourly curves of the big days, revenue on 1-day and 7-day click, the highest daily spend a single ad carried. Meta and Shopify live, Google Ads synced several times a day.
- skill · peak_sales_planning
Fund the weeks before, decide at the margin.
November often runs 1.8 to 2 times October: references to discuss, your own history comes first. During the sale, spend follows contribution on 3-day rolling reads. It peaks where marginal ROAS meets break-even, 1 ÷ the margin after discount.
- memory · Maison Lune
The brand’s discounts and calendar.
The discount table in economics gives each offer’s margin after discount; events give last year’s dates and offers. The dates and offers you decide then go into events, so every review reads the weeks around the sale.
A plan in Docs, the pacing sheet in Google Sheets, and a check every Monday.
The plan arrives in the chat and is saved in Docs. From four weeks before the sale until after Christmas, Neo adds the plan against actuals at the top.
Explore Docs →docs
The peak sale plan.
Summary, offers, targets in a base and a stretch case, budget from September to December, pacing sheet, reading rules, creative plan, platform prep, calendar, open questions and sources.
docs · google sheets
November’s pacing sheet.
Planned spend and revenue day by day, and the hourly multipliers of the big days, in a file your team keeps open during the sale.
tasks
The plan against actuals, every Monday.
Spend, revenue, contribution and CAC against the plan, corrected for revenue that arrives late, then the decisions: raise, hold, lower, switch to the backup offer, refresh creatives.
slack · gmail
The summary in your channel.
Each check goes to the brand’s channel in a few lines, with the link to the plan.
go further
More use cases, and the product pages behind them.
questions
What people ask us about peak sales.
When should the plan be ready?
About ten weeks before the sale: time to read last year, set the CAC allowance, price the offers and produce the creatives. Neo then checks the plan every week, from four weeks before the sale until after Christmas.
Why not cut spend when same-day figures drop?
Before a sale, shoppers wait: conversion rates drop, and many buy days after the click. Neo corrects same-day figures with last year’s ratio between 7-day and 1-day click. Cutting shrinks the number of people who know the brand when the sale opens.
Does Neo change budgets during the sale?
Neo reads, analyzes and recommends. It has no write access to your ad accounts. Both scenarios and their unlock threshold are approved before the sale, so your team can raise spend at night or on the weekend without waiting for a sign-off.
What happens after the sale?
A dip follows: the sale pulled purchases forward, and the plan expects it. From around December 16, auction prices drop; a post-Christmas offer can use them. Neo then compares the customers acquired during the sale with the plan.
Does the plan work for seasonal sales too?
Yes: Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the weeks after Christmas, seasonal sales. Neo works out this year’s dates, reads the same period last year and builds on your brand’s economics and events.
Plan your next peak sale with Neo.
Book a demo: we connect your accounts and your store, and Neo prices each offer of your next sale in front of you.