Neo tells you whether you can spend more, where, and how fast.

Neo · 10:16

• Meta · live · settings and 7-day click
• Shopify · live · new customers
• Google Ads · 06:10 sync
• memory · economics of Oct 14, events

meta_pilot · question mode · Meta and Shopify · 8 weeks · 7-day click

Don’t raise the account by 20%: move $9,700 to what holds target, in 20% steps.

Before any extra dollar, Neo reads your economics. A new customer brings $95 of gross profit over 180 days and costs $71: 1.3. Below 2, the method does not scale the account. At the same budget, $9,700 a month can move from catalog to the ad sets that bring in new customers, under $54.

Meta spend · 30 d

$97,200

+20% asked: $116,600

gross profit ÷ nCAC

1.3

180 days · first order 0.8 · gate 2

break-even ROAS

2.4

1 ÷ 42% gross margin

to move

$9,700

a month · marginal CPA $48 to $50

where each dollar moved goes, by marginal CPA

1. scale · +20%+$4,300

   France prospecting, existing customers excluded, has held target for nine days.

   It has excluded your customers since the list was imported on Oct 9. In the weeks its budget went up, each extra purchase cost $49. This is the campaign that creates demand, so this is the one that goes up, 20% at a time.

   • 7-day click CPA $46 · 9 days
   • 140 purchases
   • marginal CPA $49
2. scale · new ad set+$2,700

   Belgium and Switzerland, with broad targeting: audiences barely reached so far.

   Served today by the Europe and Canada CBO, with 6% of spend. CPM there is $5.50, against $6.90 in France. When their budget went up in September, Shopify orders from both countries followed: +24%.

   • marginal CPA $50
   • CPM $5.50
   • BE and CH orders +24%
3. established concept+$2,700

   The founder videos: an established concept, lost in ad sets of 100 ads.

   They get 9% of spend. In the weeks they got more, each extra purchase cost $48, and their frequency stays low. An ad set carries one concept: they get their own, with new hooks.

   • marginal CPA $48
   • 7-day frequency 1.8
   • hook rate 33%
4. harvests · funds−$9,700

   Catalog harvests the demand prospecting created, so it pays for the move.

   Close to 40% of Meta spend, on site visitors from the last 180 days, at a frequency of 6.2 over 7 days. When its budget dropped 15% from September 21 to 27, Shopify sales did not move. Its attributed ROAS, the highest in the account, says nothing about what one more dollar would bring there.

   • ≈ 40% of spend
   • 7-day frequency 6.2
   • −15% with no effect on Shopify
5. fix first$0

   France Advantage+ doesn’t exclude your customers yet, so it gets nothing more.

   7-day click ROAS 4.1, against an acquisition MER of 1.8: the gap comes from the existing customers it reaches. Excluding them is step two of the Oct 15 audit; its headroom can be measured after that.

   • 7-day click ROAS 4.1
   • acquisition MER 1.8
   • exclusions: none
6. cross-channelMeta → Google

   Your Google Brand campaign’s ROAS depends on Meta prospecting.

   Brand shows a 9.2 ROAS, Meta 3.9: the temptation is to cut one to double the other. During the August 3–16 break, Meta prospecting dropped 20%; two to three weeks later, Brand impressions fell 14% and new Shopify customers 11%. That is a correlation, which a regional test would measure: Brand is judged together with the prospecting that feeds it.

   • Brand ROAS 9.2 · Meta 3.9
   • Aug: Meta −20% → Brand −14%
   • 2 to 3 week lag

Meta stays at $97,200: the $9,700 changes places. The 20% you asked for waits for a ratio of 2.

good to knowMarginal CPA is measured between weeks when the budget changed: extra purchases ÷ extra spend, on 7-day click. Raising stops when the extra spend brings back no more than the break-even ROAS, 2.4. Under 30 purchases, an ad set is too thin to read.

proposed decisions

1. 01

   Raise France prospecting 20% today, then 20% on Oct 23 if CPA holds.

   rule An ad set that holds target for five days or more goes up about 20%, then gets judged again a few days later. A budget increase does not reset learning; results come in with a short lag.

   check Oct 23 · marginal CPA ≤ $54 · 7-day click
2. 02

   Open Belgium and Switzerland in a broad ad set, existing customers excluded, at $86 a day.

   rule Prospecting with exclusions is what you scale, even when its attributed ROAS is lower than catalog’s.

   check Oct 26 · 5 days read · CPA ≤ $54
3. 03

   Give the founder videos their own ad set, with two new hooks.

   rule An ad set carries one concept; an established concept scales with new hooks and new formats.

   launch Oct 22 · check Oct 29
4. 04

   Cut catalog by $9,700 a month in two steps, and leave Advantage+ at its budget.

   rule Never scale catalog, retargeting or Advantage+ without exclusions on their attributed ROAS alone: they harvest demand created elsewhere.

   half on Oct 19, half on Oct 26 · Shopify sales steady
5. 05

   Put the 20% raise back on the table once the ratio reaches 2.

   rule Below 2, the method does not scale the account: margin and offer come first. First-order basket size and the three-pack are on the founders’ table.

   ratio read again Nov 2 · monthly review